Archive for June, 2010

Phoenix Area Home Market at a Glance – Sales strong but not as strong as last year

Monday, June 28th, 2010

by John Wake on June 26, 2010


(”MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.)

Phoenix Real Estate Market Analysis

In May, the median single family home sold price in the Phoenix area MLS was $137,900, up from $135,000 in March and April. A year earlier, in May 2009, the price was $122,000.

I can see prices tapering off for a few months as demand goes limp with the end of the $8,000 home buyer tax credit in April. (Most Arizona home sales closed in May and many closed in June will qualify for the tax credit.)

Sales (blue line)

Surprisingly, the number of Phoenix area single family homes sold in May (7,675 homes) was less than last May (8,287 homes). And that’s despite the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit this year.

May was the first month this year when the number of Phoenix area single family homes sold via the MLS were less than the same month in 2009.

The median price, as you can see above, was 13% higher this year which would discourage some sales but I’m still surprised. The sales in May were good but sales were higher in May 2004, 2005 and 2009.

Listings (red line)

The number or single family homes listed for sale in metro Phoenix has been pretty steady since February ranging from about 33,000 to 34,000. The number of listings tends to fall in strong Springs but didn’t this year because an unusually large number of homes hit the market in March and April.

Although we apparently have a lot of supply of Arizona homes ready to hit the market, we are by no means in a buyer’s market.

We are definitely in a normal market with a 4.4-month supply of homes listed for sale in May. A year ago in May 2009 we had a 4.2-month supply of Arizona homes listed for sale. (I consider a 4-month to 6-month supply of Arizona homes a “normal” market.)

Conclusion

The Phoenix area real estate market is normal.

Sure, it’s hard to sell a home but that’s because of low priced competition from short sales and bank-owned homes, it’s not because homes aren’t selling.

And sure, it can be a pain in the neck to buy an Arizona short sale or an Arizona bank-owned home but homes are selling at a normal pace.

PHOENIX HOMES BUYERS, ARE YOU BEING REALISTIC?

Friday, June 18th, 2010

realistic Much has been written across real estate blogs and mainstream media outlets about unrealistic home sellers. It seems much less common though to talk about unrealistic home buyers.

Naturally everyone wants to get the most home they can for the least amount of money. Which is, of course, in opposition to the home seller, who wants the most money for their home. This inherent conflict is one of the things that makes real estate sales… challenging at times.

It has been my experience of late that home sellers in Phoenix are becoming much more realistic. While it used to be quite common to hear sellers say things like, “But my neighbors house sold for x dollars last year!”, sellers seem to be getting more realistic when it comes to their home’s value, as depressing as that may be.

Home buyers on the other hand almost seem to be losing their grip on reality.

Here are some examples of communication we have received lately:

  • We’d like to offer $30K under list price…
  • I want a single-family detached house in Scottsdale, on a golf course. I can spend up to $150K…
  • I need a home less than three years old, NOT in a HOA…
  • We just foreclosed last month and are looking to buy. I think our credit is horrible, and we don’t have any down payment money…
  • I need a smoking deal on a bank owned home or short sale. I’m willing to pay 50% of list on multiple properties…
  • I refuse to pay a dime over list price on a short sale or bank owned home…

I could go on and on.

The answer for all of those comments above is “you can’t do/get/buy that”.

Here’s the deal. Much of this type of thing comes from simply not understanding what is happening in the real estate market. And by “the real estate market” I am not talking about what you hear on CNN or even your local evening news / newspaper. You need to understand what the market is doing in the specific area you are interested in. “The market” is just too broad and real estate is hyper local.

As a home buyer, you can’t be expected to truly understand your local real estate market. Most people buy a home every 7 – 10 years. We are up to our necks in this stuff every single day. That doesn’t make real estate sales people better than you, or smarter. It’s just what we do for a living (and sometimes I ask myself why in the world I’m doing it…). Helping people determine the nuances of their local real estate market is what we get paid for (and why, to be brutally honest, it is very frustrating to have our data, attempts at education, and advice questioned repeatedly – or ignored).

An example:

At this moment in time, the average price of a home in the Phoenix Multiple Listing Service is $175,509. That number is for the entire Phoenix MLS area, which includes all of Maricopa County and a significant swath of Pinal county. That is a HUGE area – almost the size of the state of Massachusetts.

Listen to the mainstream media and you’ll often hear the average priced batted about – it’s rising, it’s falling, it’s hopeless, it’s recovering.

So what does an average home price in the Phoenix area of $175K mean?

Absolutely nothing.

You want a home in Phoenix proper? Average price is $132K

Scottsdale? Average price is $639K

Gilbert? Average price is $221K

El Mirage? Average price is $79K

You see, when you lump every type of home in a 10,000 square mile area into one number, it swiftly begins to become meaningless.

So let’s drill down a little bit. . .

$639K average home price in Scottsdale? What does that mean?

Only slightly more than absolutely nothing.

Right now I could sell you a condo in Scottsdale for $32,000 (but it’s not on a golf course). Or a (really) nice home for $15,000,000. About all the average price tells you is that generally, homes in Scottsdale cost more than say… homes in Gilbert, which are more, generally, than homes in El Mirage.

Here is where being a “realistic buyer” comes in to play

It is a waste of your time and your agent’s time to try to find homes that simply do not exist. That part is relatively easy to educate, and provide hard data to back up that education. Want a golf-course lot single-family home in Scottsdale? A quick trip to the MLS shows you have 323 options, and the five lowest priced ones are: $295K; $350K; $394K; $410K; and $424K. You simply can’t get one for $150K — it does not exist. Don’t waste your, mine and our time looking for one.

You want to “steal” a bank-owned home for 50% of list price? Consider this… In Feb 2010, there were 2,822 lender owned properties sold, at an average of 98.48% of list price. How many do you think were sold at 50% of list price? While I have not looked at all 2,822 sales, I’m quite confident in saying that number is zero. You can’t buy REO properties in Phoenix at 50% off list price. That’s not a realistic expectation.

That’s all hard data – you can’t argue with it (though many do).

Were it gets tough is on some of the more nebulous requests from buyers. You don’t want to offer a dime over list price on a short sale? Well, here is where you may have to rely on your agent’s expertise. I can tell you (and show you) that there are oodles of short sale listings in the Phoenix market priced woefully under market value. We could spend hours pouring over current listings and past sales to demonstrate this. But that’s not an effective use of your time (or mine). And it is still a difficult thing to prove. The problem is, there are listing agents out there with the nasty habit of grossly under pricing a short sale in an effort to generate an offer and/or bidding frenzy. Offer below list price on a home already priced lower than the bank will accept and you are looking at an exercise in futility.

When you are buying a home, you have to be realistic. You aren’t going to get everything a $500K home has to offer for $250K – it just doesn’t work that way. You’re not going to steal a home from a bank, no matter how much the banks annoy you or how much they got in bailout money. You aren’t going to live a Scottsdale lifestyle on an El Mirage budget.

Please please please, for the love of all things good and the little fluffy bunnies, don’t think for a moment that I’m saying all buyers are unrealistic, or that no one listens. Buyers are smart. Smarter than a lot of people, including many listing agents and sellers, give them credit for. Yes, it is frustrating when a buyer won’t listen, or doesn’t believe what we say. Given the general mistrust of real estate agents in the public’s eye, I understand that reluctance to believe. I understand we have to prove we know what we’re talking about. We have to earn your trust. Once that trust is earned however; take advantage of it! Believe what your agent is telling you. I can assure you that they want to sell you a home as badly as you want to buy one.

Think about what your expectations are, and work with your agent to see if they are realistic. It’s OK to ask for as much proof as your agent can provide. Realize though that some things are difficult to prove with hard factual / statistical data. Sometimes empirical data (based on observation and experience) is all you have to work with. Combine the two, work closely with your agent, build that trust and get out there and find that perfect home! 

Just be realistic. It will greatly reduce your stress level. And your agents. Remember, real estate agents are people too. (At least most are most of the time…)

By – Jay Thompson

Selling Your House: Getting a Mortgage After Foreclosure

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

Written by: Justin McHood

Many times, the difference between someone short selling their house and going through foreclosure comes down to one thing…

Luck.

Any number of things can happen that allow someone to short sell their home and avoid foreclosure – or on the other side, any number of things can happen that prevent someone from short selling their home and forcing their home to be foreclosed on.

And in my experience, people who have experienced either a short sale or a foreclosure have one common question that they ask me:

How long before I can get another mortgage?

And when I give them the honest answer, it is always fun to see their eyes open wide.

How long before you can get another mortgage if you short sell or go through foreclosure?

One. Day.

Many people don’t realize that there are financing options available that don’t care if you are:

  • currently in foreclosure
  • currently late on your payments
  • have recently short sold your house
  • have bad credit because you chose to walk away from your house

But there is — it is called seller financing.

Seller financing can take many different forms, but in the most general terms the seller currently owns the home you want to buy and they are willing to come to a financial agreement to let you buy it from them.  There are very few rules when it comes to seller financing, so mortgage terms can be very, very flexible.

It is entirely possible that you can find seller financing much easier than you found it was to get a mortgage circa 2005, it is all up to the individual seller. According to Dean, right now there are currently about 1,000 properties available with seller financing listed as an option on the MLS in Maricopa County.

So my personal advice to people who are heart-broken about short selling their house or going through foreclosure is – if you want to own a home one day after foreclosure, start hustling around and looking for seller financing.

You may be surprised what you find.

The Facts about Your Credit Score

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

You know that your credit score is important. The FICO ® score affects the ability to purchase a home or car, impacts insurance premiums and can even influence employment. But do you know how to protect or improve it? Here are six things you can do:

First, Stop the Bleeding

If you’re in the midst of a financial crisis, you’re not in a position to improve your credit score. You need to stabilize your situation before you can begin that process. Begin by taking a careful look at your income and expenses and developing a budget. Approach creditors and ask if they have programs, such as forbearance or modified payment plans, which can help you through this financially difficult period. Be aware that these plans may have additional fees and/or increase your debt in the long term.

If you’re having trouble making your mortgage payment, a HUD-approved housing counselor can advise you—for free. You may also want to consult the Arizona Short Sale Seller Advisory, which explores options other than foreclosure. The top priority in a mortgage crisis is to decide whether or not you want to stay in the house. The decision to stay or go will dictate the strategy you select.

Patrick Ritchie, author of The Credit Road Map and a senior GRI instructor, explains that it is critical to understand that the majority of the credit damage is going to come from late payments on the mortgage, regardless of the end result. He emphasizes that no one answer covers every individual’s situation because each homeowner faces different circumstances, and the contents of a credit report are like DNA for each individual. Regardless of the credit score situation, it is more important to look at the far-reaching aspects of a mortgage crisis to avoid future liability, he explains. Credit can always rebound over time; many people are back to average FICO® scores within three years of a bankruptcy or foreclosure. According to Craig Watts, public affairs manager at Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), “Based on the information that lenders report and the way it shows up on consumer credit reports, the FICO scoring model assesses a foreclosure, short sale or deed-in-lieu as a serious derogatory tradeline. They all represent a major failure on the part of the consumer to meet his mortgage obligation.”

For more information on getting control of your finances, consult this Federal Trade Commission (FTC) article, “Knee Deep in Debt.”

Request a Free Copy of Your Credit Report

Whether you’ve just come through a financial crisis or have been humming along just fine, you should review your credit report annually. Checking your credit report regularly is an important way to safeguard your financial well-being and protect yourself from identity theft and other financial crimes.

Do not pay for this privilege! Under federal law, you are entitled to a free credit report each year from the three nationwide credit reporting companies (Experian, Equifax and TransUnion). Simply visit AnnualCreditReport.com (or call 877-322-8228) to request your report. (If you paid for what you thought was your free annual report, report it to the FTC.)

According to an April 2009 survey summary from Capitol One, 55% of Americans know they can get their credit report for free. However, only 41% review their credit annually, and 19% have never checked their report. Be in the savvy minority!

Report Inaccurate Information on Your Report

Once you have your report in hand, go over it carefully. A 2004 report from U.S. PIRG, the federation of state Public Interest Research Groups (PIRGs), says that 25% of credit reports contain errors serious enough to result in denial of credit.

If you need to dispute an item, draft letters to both the credit reporting company and the source of the information on the report. Under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, both are responsible for correcting the information. With the letters, include copies of relevant (not originals) documents that support your statement. The Federal Trade Commission provides a sample letter and other information on contesting inaccuracies.

If you prevail, you can ask the credit reporting company to send notice to anyone who received your report in the preceding six months—or two years, if the report was pulled for an employment screening. If they decide against correcting or removing the item, you can ask that a statement of dispute be included in future reports.

Suspect identity theft? It gets more complicated. Check out the FTC’s identity theft site. (Find out legal requirements agents and brokers need to be aware of to prevent identity theft.)

Don’t wait until you need credit to review your report. It can take time to get mistakes corrected.

Avoid Getting Scammed

You’ve probably encountered ads for companies that offer to “fix” your credit or make your problems go away, guaranteed. Save your money. There is no quick fix when it comes to your credit, and no one can get accurate information removed from your report. Here are several red flags that should alert you that something is fishy:

They ask for payment before services have been completed.

They don’t explain what you can do for free on your own.

They tell you not to contact the credit reporting companies directly.

They promise to have accurate information removed.

They encourage you to create a “new” credit identity.

They do not provide a written contract (with their name and business address on it) that specifies the payment terms, describes the services and provides a timeline.

Don’t act on bad advice and commit fraud. Per the FTC, “It’s a federal crime to lie on a loan or credit application, to misrepresent your Social Security number, and to obtain an Employer Identification Number from the Internal Revenue Service under false pretenses.”

If you suspect you’ve been the victim of a scam, report it to the Arizona Attorney General.

Build a Better Score

Here are three ways you can improve your score on your own:

Use it or lose it. You want to have at least one major card (Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Discover) reporting to the three credit agencies. Having a card in your drawer doesn’t do much good—and can lead the credit card company to close your account, which can ding your score. You’ll need to charge items occasionally. That said, you don’t have to carry a balance. Whenever possible, pay off your balances in full each month. And just because one card is good does not mean ten is better. Avoid opening unnecessary accounts, which can lower your score.

Don’t max out. “More than a third of your FICO score depends on how much of your available credit you’re using — your so-called credit utilization,” reports credit expert Liz Pulliam Weston. “The FICO formula likes to see big gaps between your balances (whether you pay them off each month or not) and your limits, especially on credit cards.” In fact, she recommends that you use under 30% of your available credit—and under 10% is even better. (And don’t miss what she said in the parentheses. Putting a major purchase on a card will ding your score whether you pay it off quickly or not.)

Automate it. Because regular credit use helps your score—and helps prevent a card from being closed—why not arrange to have a specific bill, such as your electric bill, paid with your credit card? Then set up your bank account to automatically pay the balance by the due date each month. That way, you prevent damaging late payments while establishing your credit-worthiness.

Get more tips on building a better credit report from the FTC.

Avoid Hurting Your Score

Some things that hurt your credit are obvious—bankruptcy, foreclosure, skipping payments. Others are more surprising, such as maxing out a card. Here are four ways to sidestep trouble:

Pay fines and parking tickets. While these items seem unrelated to credit, they can be reported to credit reporting companies and end up lowering your score.

Protest if your lender reduces your credit line. This affects your credit utilization (see #2 above). If it’s a credit card line, call the company and politely explain that you may move your balances to other cards if they don’t reconsider. (But don’t close the card—which can also affect your score.) If it’s a home-equity line of credit (HELOC), you want to be able to show that your loan-to-value ratio is 80% or better. (If you get an appraisal, be sure to user a lender-approved appraiser.)

Reconsider disputes. You may have a valid reason to refuse to pay a certain charge. But be careful that you don’t shoot yourself in the foot. If the other party sends it to collections, you could compromise your credit score.

Weigh risks versus rewards. Some things that make financial sense for you can still harm your credit score—from transferring credit card balances to settling debts to loan modifications. The best you can do is evaluate your options and choose the lesser evil.

According to Experian, the average U.S. credit score in May 2010 was 692. How do you measure up? Start improving your score today!

Senate Introduces Amendment to Extend Home Buyer Tax Credit Deadline

Monday, June 14th, 2010

USCapitolsm The current incarnation of the Home Buyer Tax credit requires contracts accepted before April 30, 2010 to close escrow by June 30, 2010 in order for the purchaser to claim a tax credit of up to $8,000 (or up to $6,500 for non-first time home buyers).

Yesterday, Senators Harry Reid of Nevada, Johnny Isaakson of Georgia, and Chris Dodd of Connecticut introduced an amendment to the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010 (H.R.4213) that, if passed, would extend that closing deadline to September 30, 2010.

This amendment does NOT change the fact that you had to be under contract by April 30 to claim the tax credit. It just changes the date the transaction must be closed by in order to claim the credit. Apparently the Senators have realized something any agent marginally versed in real estate sales could have told them – many real estate transactions, especially short sales, take more than two months to close.

H.R.4213 has already passed the House, and has wide support in the Senate. Once all the amendments (including this one) are hashed out and attached, the House and Senate versions would have to be reconciled and then sent to the President for signature.

Given the level of support for the main thrust of the bill (extending Unemployment Insurance, extending a scheduled 21.2% cut in Medicare reimbursement to doctors, and creating jobs) my guess is this will pass and the Home Buyer Tax Credit closing deadline will be extended to September 30.

But we’re talking politics and Washington, so anything can happen… Someday, maybe, hopefully, they’ll let the damn thing just die.