Is the Phoenix, Arizona Real Estate Market Recovering?

February 17th, 2010

Here’s a snapshot of the current Phoenix metro area real estate market, as I see it:

At the end of last year, the real estate market in the Phoenix metropolitan area started to pick up…  not because of any government program, but because the free market works.  When prices came down to a certain level, the investors came out to play.  Some of those who were sitting on the sidelines waiting decided it was time.  And people started buying again… not in huge droves like a few years back when people were fighting each other for houses.  But then again, who wants that, really?  (I was taught that slow and steady wins the race!).

Since then, I’ve seen a steady flow of buyers into the market, and many banks/real estate agents are even creating bidding wars again.  Of course, these bidding wars are driven by totally fabricated demand.  The bank has a real estate agent list the house for a super low price to attract multiple offers.  Then instead of rejecting any of the offers, they entice all of the propsective buyers into a bidding war and tell them to make their “highest and best offer”.  None of the buyers know what the other bids are, so they often times end up bidding higher than they should because they get sucked into the emotion of ‘wanting to win the bid’ rather than rationally determining what the house is worth without that emotion present.  I always tell buyers to avoid bidding situations, even in a sellers market.  But especially in the current buyer’s market… there are still way too many houses available for sale right now to get into a bidding war.  Go find a seller who appreciates your offer more and is willing to negotiate under your terms.  In a buyer’s market, the buyer should feel like they’re driving the terms of the deal, not the seller.

But realize that Arizona’s residential real estate market still faces significant foreclosures, and this will continue for some time.  Supply is good for buyers and you shouldn’t let uncertainty scare you away from the market if you’re buying an owner-occupied home that you plan to keep for at least 3-5 years.  However, I would advise inexperienced investors to be very careful buying Arizona real estate right now, especially if you plan to do a short-term flip.  There’s money to be made, but you can also lose a bunch so just know what you’re doing.

In my opinion, Arizona’s real estate market is recovering, but is not out of the woods yet.  The biggest danger to this recovery (other than government interference) is the commercial real estate market.  I’m not sure why nobody is talking about it, but the commercial market could create huge problems in the coming years, especially if banking problems are not addressed.  Commercial real estate market trends lag the residential market, and I don’t think we’ve even started to see the real impact of the commercial market yet.  Here’s why: Many commerical real estate mortgages are 5-year or 10-year interest-only loans with balloon payments due at the end of the term.  So as those commercial loans made at the height of the real estate bubble start to come due (as they currently are), the property owner (probably a small business owner) will have only a few choices.  They either have to pay off the entire balance, which is unlikely for most businesses since they’re probably already struggling to make ends meet.  Or they’ll have to re-finance the loan, which is also unlikely because 1) property values are much lower now and the property is probably not worth the loan amount anymore, and 2) lending standards are tighter and commercial loans are very hard to get.  So if these loans can’t be re-financed or paid off, the only other option is to sell the property before the loan is due.  Many property owners will wait too long, not realizing how long it takes to sell a commercial property in today’s market and will consequently face foreclosure.  For this reason, I believe the commercial market could be the next big real estate crisis.

Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball, and nobody really knows for sure what tomorrow will bring.  Everybody with an opinion on the future of the real estate market is really just guessing :)   So my advice is guess carefully, and as always, buyer beware!

Visit Shannon Hubbard's Home Page     Written By: Shannon Hubbard

Freddie Mac: 30-year Mortgage Rate Falls Under 5%

February 11th, 2010

FHA gone crazy!

January 22nd, 2010

The FHA has gone crazy, making sweeping new
changes in several policies. You’ve got to
keep these in mind when clients consider
FHA loans.

Here are some of the most extreme changes:

**** Raised up-front costs for insurance

**** TRIPLE downpayment requirements

**** Cut seller concessions by HALF!

The government hopes the new policies will
help the organization better handle risk. And
they’ve got every reason to be nervous.
9% of all loans that the FHA insures are
past due. FHA claims have been skyrocketing
with the organization paying out of its
capital reserves.

30% of all new loans (and 20% of refinances)
are backed by the FHA. This is a 1,000 percent
increase over 2006. This seems like shaky
ground for the company. The FHA is hoping
to scale back to pre-crisis times and minimize
their exposure.

The new up-front mortgage premiums have risen
to 2.25% starting in the spring. They are
also aiming to raise the maximum annual premiums
that they can charge. They are hoping these
moves will help them replenish their reserves.
FICO scores will now need to be at least 580
to qualify for the lower downpayment program
(3.5%) instead of 10%. This change begins in
summer.

Also, sellers will find themselves with new
restrictions as well. Closing costs that
they can kick in are limited to 3% of the
value of the property, down from 6%. They
are hoping this will drive down inflated
valuations.

And of course, all these changes come with
more oversight. Lenders will be ranked based
on performance and these figures will be
made publicly available.

The bottom line of these changes is the effort
to minimize risk of default and help the
housing industry recover (as well as cover
the FHA’s a**).

How do you think these new rules will affect
us?

Cory Boatright
Loss Mitigation Specialist

FHA Temporarily Changed Its Policy.

January 20th, 2010

January 15th, FHA temporarily changed its policy and lifted the 90 day seasoning requirement for a period of one year starting February 1, 2010. This is exceptional news for our industry. There are still some restrictions and requirements, but the policy change recognizes the needs of the marketplace. In their press release the FHA stated,

“In today’s market, FHA research finds that acquiring, rehabilitating and the reselling these properties to prospective homeowners often takes less than 90 days. Prohibiting the use of FHA mortgage insurance for a subsequent resale within 90 days of acquisition adversely impacts the willingness of sellers to allow contracts from potential FHA buyers because they must consider holding costs and the risk of vandalism associated with allowing a property to sit vacant over a 90-day period of time.”

The FHA still has concerns over predatory practices of “flipping” where properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers, this waiver is limited to those sales meeting the following general conditions:

All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.
In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller’s acquisition cost, the waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions. (These conditions can be met rather easily with supporting documentation. – AZREIA)
The waiver is limited to forward mortgages, and does not apply to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for purchase program.
The complete text of the Waiver is at http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/waivpropflip2010.pdf. It is suggested that you read it in its entirty to understand how it affects your business directly. Also, the complete press release is at http://portal.hud.gov/portal/page/portal/HUD/press/press_releases_media_advisories/2010/HUDNo.10-011 .

How to File for $8,000 Tax Credit

January 19th, 2010

From CNNMoney.com, we have just learned that the way the IRS is “handling” the tax credit is turning into yet another stumbling block to helping the real estate market recover. This seems to me to be so unfair! Anyone who qualified for the credit probably could really use that money, whether to repay mom and dad for the down payment loan or as cash to repair that fixer-upper they bought. I’m going to email the article and link this out to my clients IRS Form 5405.

Home Buyer Tax Credit: No e-file and four month delays

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By CNNMoney.com Les Christie staff writer

January 16, 2010: 6:54 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Good news homebuyers: You can file for your $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit again. Bad news: You still can’t e-file your taxes if you want the cash. And there are long delays.

On Thursday, CNNMoney revealed that buyers who purchased their properties after Nov. 6 were unable to claim the refund because the Internal Revenue Service had yet to release a new form and instructions. But on Friday, the IRS finally posted the new form 5405.

The two-month delay was frustrating to Florida resident Charles Teschke. “We are not broke or anything, but nevertheless we were still counting on getting the tax refund to help pay for the appliances and stuff we needed for our new home,” he said. “The IRS told me they estimate it will take four months for me to get my refund!”

First-time buyers were able to immediately file for the tax credit after Congress approved it last February as part of the stimulus program. All they had to do was file an amendment to their 2008 tax returns (the ones they filed last April) and claim the promised refund of 10% of the purchase price, up to $8,000.